Update 11/8: Final results for the 2006 midterm election can be found at CNN's site here.
It's time for an update to my 2006 Midterm Election forecast.
Based on recent polling, I am now showing that the Republicans will retain a one-seat lead in the Senate, picking up four seats, versus 50/50 in my October 18th analysis. In the House, the projected Democratic majority has declined from 235/200 to 230/205. Finally, I am now showing that the Democrats will pick up seven Governor's seats, versus six in my previous analysis (Iowa is a virtual tie so is switching back and forth).
Despite these changes, polling still shows significantly eroded support for the Republican Party. I speculate that the improvements to the Republican numbers represents the confluence of a few different effects:
- Effect of the Foley scandal is wearing off a little bit.
- Republican ad spending seems to have spiked faster than Democratic ad spending (anecdotally).
- Economy improving and gas prices falling.
- Random fluctuations in the polling of close races.
I have included detailed discussion in the continuation. As usual, the PDF is here.
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