In spite of recent rhetoric regarding "activist judges", two-thirds of Americans believe that the federal judiciary should remain independent of the elected branches.
Opinion Research also asked "In general, do you think federal court judges are too liberal, too conservative or just about right?" Interestingly, a plurality (41%) believe federal court judges are just about right. Not surprisingly, 34% believe they are too liberal and 20% believe they are too conservative. In my opinion, these last two statistics are probably the result of (i) some amount of real sissy bias on the courts and (ii) the repeated, vocal haranguing by the nutjobs that the federal courts are filled with "activist judges" (which we all know means liberal).
It's time for an update to my 2006 Midterm Election forecast.
Based on recent polling, I am now showing that the Republicans will retain a one-seat lead in the Senate, picking up four seats, versus 50/50 in my October 18th analysis. In the House, the projected Democratic majority has declined from 235/200 to 230/205. Finally, I am now showing that the Democrats will pick up seven Governor's seats, versus six in my previous analysis (Iowa is a virtual tie so is switching back and forth).
Despite these changes, polling still shows significantly eroded support for the Republican Party. I speculate that the improvements to the Republican numbers represents the confluence of a few different effects:
Effect of the Foley scandal is wearing off a little bit.
Republican ad spending seems to have spiked faster than Democratic ad spending (anecdotally).
Economy improving and gas prices falling.
Random fluctuations in the polling of close races.
I have included detailed discussion in the continuation. As usual, the PDF is here.
Well, I have certainly neglected my blog for quite some time. Fortunately, I kept my previous 2006 Midterm Election analysis up to date. The following tables summarize my projections, largely based on current polling. Perhaps more interesting, detailed schedules are available here in pdf form. These schedules provide lists of races, candidates, some comments and whatever poll I used for all Senate and Gubernatorial races. For House races, I also included the 2004 election results, but I only show the races that are close or those where the seat is open.